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Understanding How Land Prices can Estimate Launch Prices

Understanding why land bid prices can estimate price launch

Ever Wonder why there’s so much hype around the winning bid for land and how their prices affect the ultimate Launch Price of a new Project?

Land prices keep varying with time, and they depend on several factors, such as the current economic state of the market. Whether you want to buy a private property Singapore or are looking for a house for rent in Singapore, you must know the estimated land price of a certain area to make a competitive offer. While the land prices keep varying, and there is no set way of knowing the exact price of the land at the time of launch, there is a way to estimate the land prices. 

In this way, you will know if you are looking at hiked prices in the coming future for a new developer property or if prices are set to go down. Understanding land bid prices by other interested parties can give you a scoop about the estimated price of certain properties at the time of the launch.  

In this guide, we are going to look at how the land bid prices are estimated before the launch of the Singapore real estate property and what this estimation of prices predicts for Singapore property prices. Let’s go for a detailed view. 

Cost To Cover Land Prices

 

When developers build houses and set prices for them, they not only have to cover the cost of building the property but also other related expenses. Then, the prices also need to have a profit margin for all the shareholders. All these combined make for the final launch price of the house. 

If you are scouring the market for an executive condo Singapore, you can estimate the launch price of an Executive Condominium or prices of other Singapore real estate by finding the break-even price and then adding a normal range of profit margin to it. 

 

The Breakeven Point

 

The break-even point is that sweet spot that covers all the associated costs of property development. The main expense here is buying the land on which to build the property and the cost of construction of that property. These expenses can be named as the cost of goods sold in accounting terms. 

To calculate the cost of goods sold, you need to know the price of the land, area of the site, and plot ratio. After calculating the cost of goods sold, you have to add in other related expenses such as administrative costs, marketing expenses, debts, and loans. 

The total of cost of goods sold and other related expenses make the break-even point which is the minimum amount that needs to be covered in the launch price, so the shareholders won’t run into a loss. Any sum below this number and the seller is at a loss. 

The Profit Margin

 

The launch price of the private property Singapore or an executive condominium Singapore will not be equal to the break-even point alone. The shareholders and dealers need to incur a profit as well.

The normal profit margin range for an executive condo Singapore or other Singapore real estate is between 25 to 35 percent, but it can dwindle depending on market conditions. You can add this profit margin range to the break-even amount, and there is your estimated launch price. 

For example, the Thomson View Condominium had a plot ratio of 2.1, a site area of 50196.4 square meters, and the site gross floor area (GFA) of 105413 square meters. The price of the land on which the condominium was built was $950 per square meter. 

After adding in the administrative and marketing costs and a reasonable profit margin, the launch price could be estimated. 

The Land Bid Prices

 

After the launch price of Singapore real estate is estimated, bids are made to match the launch price before the price is revealed. For example, in the above case of Thomson View Condominium, the highest bid for the property was $1293 per square foot. 

By taking a look at the land bid prices for the private property Singapore or executive condominium Singapore, we can observe the Singapore property prices trend. As the land prices keep going up or down, the estimated launch prices will vary accordingly, and so will the land bud prices. 

Hence, understanding and knowing the land bid prices can give you an overview of the prices of Singapore real estate market and whether it is rising or declining. 

 

Singapore Property Prices Trend

 

There are several factors that affect the prices of land and launch prices of private property Singapore. With the invasion of Covid-19 over the past two years, it is a general perception that land prices have dropped and so have the prices for Singapore real estate.

However, it couldn’t be further from the truth. If we look at the data for the years from 2017 and 2018 up until 2022, we can clearly see that the land prices have shot up and have continued to go up steadily over the years. 

comparison of prices in 2017/19 vs 2022/23 (RCR)

Source: Huttons RTD Group

Growth in prices has been slow in some residential areas as well in some of the years, such as in some quarters of 2020 and 2021, but the growth has been there. 

Impact Of Covid-19 On Real Estate Prices

 

When Covid-19 fell upon the world, all business activities slowed down, and people held back on Singapore real estate investment. People were spending more on healthcare, groceries, medicines, technology, and other such stuff, which was necessary for quarantine and work from home life. Real estate investments were not at the top of expenditure lists.

As such, it was expected that the prices of land and property during that time and afterward would drop. However, according to the Singapore property price index published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority, the prices have continued to rise. 

The demand for land and property in Singapore has been increasing even during the pandemic, and the supply has been relatively lower as businesses scaled back. This has kept the price index from dropping too low. 

Comparison of Prices in 2018 vs 2022/23 (OCR)

Source: Huttons RTD Group

The Singapore property price index indicates that the prices dropped by one percent during the first quarter of 2020. After that, the prices of properties in the city area continued to rise for eight consecutive quarters. 

 

Singapore Property Prices In 2021-2022 And The Cooling Measures

 

2021 was an exhilarating year in terms of price growth of Singapore real estate as the year saw a cumulative growth of 10.6 percent during the year. The first two quarters were a bit slow with only 0.4 percent growth. The fourth quarter of the year 2021 saw a striking growth of 5 percent in property prices.     

2022 was getting off to a good start in terms of Singapore landed property price trend with a four percent rise in the first quarter in the prices of bungalows, shophouses, and strata landed housing. 

However, the government introduced cooling measures which aimed to control the growing prices of Singapore real estate. The Singapore property cooling measures were introduced on Dec 15, 2021. The cooling measures 2021 increased the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD), lowered Loan-to-Value limits, and tightened the Total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) threshold. 

The Singapore property cooling measures dampened the Singapore property price index for condos and apartments as the index went down by 0.6 percent. The properties in central regions also fell by a few points after the introduction of the cooling prices. In the last quarter of 2021, the prices in the same central region went up by 6.7 percent. 

However, in regions outside of the central areas of Singapore, the price index hiked by 1.9 percent. This number shows a slow pace of growth as compared to the growth in the previous quarters, but the hike shows that the demand for Singapore real estate is still going strong, even after the cooling measures. The slow growth may also be credited to the rising interest rates. The steep Singapore bank interest rates negatively impact the sales of property. 

Comparison of Prices in 2017 vs 2022/23 (RCR)

Source: Huttons RTD Group

What Do The Land Bid Prices Predict For The Future?

 

It is expected that the year 2022 will see a slow pace of growth in the Singapore property price index compared to 2021, but there will be steady growth in prices this year. You can expect to see markedly strong growth in the later quarters of 2022 as people are still coming around to the cooling measures. 

Estimated New Launch Prices in 2022 and 2023 (RCR)

Source: Huttons RTD Group

According to the URA index, the demand for residential homes is still very high, especially from people living within the country. As Singapore has recently reopened its borders, the demand for Singapore real estate investment from foreigners is expected to rise in the last few months as well as in 2023. 

2022 is the crossroad for the property market

Source: Huttons RTD Group

If the land bid prices and data are to be believed, the last half of the year 2022 is going to be a time of growth for Singapore real estate price index despite the cooling measures 2021.

 

Conclusion

 

Land bid prices give an accurate account of where the property prices will go during the year. As we have seen from the graphs above as well, the bid prices for lands are rising steadily, and they have continued to grow from the previous years. 

Even though the government introduced the Singapore property cooling measures, which has put a dent in the Singapore property price index in some areas, the demand and supply show that the price index in the later part of 2022 and in 2023 as well will rise markedly.    

As such, we are currently at the crossroads of property prices, and the sale prices for an executive condo Singapore and private property Singapore will take a hike in the coming future. 

You like to know how to plan your next move with the possibilities of Land Prices in Singapore?   Contact us for a 2 hr free consult! 

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