It’s been one hella exciting year for Real Estate in Singapore. Record after record prices, month after month, eye brow raising numbers in transactions, interest rates, million dollar HDBs… Just how to you get hold on the property trends? Bet you wished for a little humbug in the news so you can restore some sanity in this modern post-covid era.
Almost as certain as suffering from World Cup football fatigue in December 2022, you’ll also wonder how rising interest rates, borders easing, increased inventory supply and rents will trend in 2023?
Lets gaze into the crystal ball and see if we might be able to help you calm yourself a little and maybe even get off those high blood meds!
1. Built – Housing Supply
More than 20,000 private homes and executive condos will be ready to occupy (TOP) by the end of 2023. This is the most significant amount since the introduction of cooling measures in 2018 that cut down investor buying. Most of these were bought just after 2018’s cooling measures.
The housing market has been extremely tight, particularly in the suburbs, which has caused a burst of rental and price rises in the last year. With a considerable proportion of the new completions situated in the outside of the central region, the demand for mass market housing might be alleviated.
Several of the larger projects in OCR are Treasure at Tampines, Parc Clematis, and The Florence Residences. Other projects of size include Piedmont Grand, Sengkang Grand Residences, and OLA.
About 6,600 units will be projected to be completed in the outskirts of the city. Noteworthy project include Avenue South Residences, Riviere and Daintree Residences.
The new housing stock stays dull for the upper end of the market with around 2,500 anticipated completions. Some of these include Leedon Green, Ko-par at Newton, Haus on Handy, Boulevard 88 and Van Holland.
With low inventory and purchasers preferring new TOP ventures, most unsold stock may be completely sold soon.
2. New Home Launches to meet Demand
Private
In 2023 there will be more than 11,000 new homes released to the public from over 45 projects, excluding executive condominiums. Developers may decide to launch these homes in 2023 or in early 2024. The number of new homes will be equivalent to or even surpass the 10,496 units released in 2021 and 10,883 units in 2020.
There will be at least 7 large developments with more than 500 units each, such as The Continuum in Thiam Siew Avenue (800 units), The Reserve Residences in Jalan Anak Bukit (740 units), Lentor Hill Residences (598 units), the sites in Dunman Road (1,040 units), Marina View white site (748 units), Jalan Tembusu (640 units) and Pine Grove Parcel A (520 units).
HDB upgraders and young couples can look forward to two new Executive Condominiums in Bukit Batok West Ave 8 (375 Units) and Bukit Batok West Ave 5(495 units).
In the suburbs, there are some good projects like The Botany at Dairy Farm, Kassia at Flora Drive, the former Park View Mansions and former Lakeside Apartments in Yuan Ching Road, and the development at 798 and 800 Upper Bukit Timah Road.
As the Lentor region is quickly turning into a new bustling residential area with large shopping malls and new facilities. Buyers can anticipate the launch of Lentor Hill Residences. And with more developments at Lentor Central and Lentor Hills Road Parcel B, folks can look forward to these if they wish to be in this up and coming growth area.
In the luxury segment, some of the noteworthy developments include the redevelopment of AXA Tower, the former Maxwell House, the former Peace Centre and Peace Mansion, Newport Residences (previously Fuji Xerox Towers) and the Marina View white site.
These projects will bring life and spruce up Districts 1 and 2 with new homes and amenities.
In 2023 the Government could potentially introduce their blueprint and noteworthy changes for the Greater Southern Waterfront area. This would be a massive transformation of this are which would comprise of fresh office spaces, housing of different styles and extended natural parks in Keppel, Pasir Panjang and Harbour Front.
Source: RTD Huttons
HDB
HDB will release about 23,000 BTO flats in 2023 to accommodate rising demand. And with a commitment to combating quickly rising prices, HDB has vouch to say that they are ready to build up to 100,000 new flats between 2021 and 2025 if required and it the demand is there.
Even though we will see more BTOs come online next year, we expect prices to continue to rise as inflation will continue to affect building costs. Almost as certain as how BTOs saw new launch price highs, we’re expecting this trend to continue in 2023 with any buckling of this trend almost remote.
Source: RTD Huttons
3. Rents May Stabilize
Landlords may experience some difficulties in 2023 and conversely tenants finding relief. Renters are expected to transition from private Condos to less costly HDB flats or even move back to their parental homes.
Additionally, more homes will be finished and put up for rent. A considerable number of inhabitants who were expecting the completion of their new homes and renting in the meantime will also start to move into their new units and depart from the rental market.
The opening of Singapore’s borders in 2023 will continue to see foreigners coming in the country. Filing up positions of employment and thus needing rental units. This is expected to continue.
Rents may hit a peak and potentially settle down starting in the second half of 2023. This won’t be much of a consolation to tenants, as rents will still likely keep rising in 2023, albeit at a slower pace than before. We expect the rate of rent increasing will slow down from about 28 percent in 2022 to 15 percent in 2023. Leasing demand is predicted to decrease from 93,000 units to 87,000 units in the same timeframe.
4. Condos are nearing the end of their ABSD period and Developers must sell in 2023
A five-year period is given to developers when they purchase land to sell all their units or be faced with ABSD.
Therefore, developers have been known to give steep discounts to as they creep closer to their ABSD deadline. We’ve listed the projects that will incur the wrath of ABSD if its not sold in 2023 so you can have your pickings if you like to pick up some quick bargains.
5. Rising Interest Rates
Despite the continued rising interest rates in 2022 and forecasted even more dreaded interest rates hikes, most analysts have agreed that in Singapore, they do not see a lot of effect on pull backs of prices.
The job market is generally speaking still quite buoyant. And with the opening up in 2022, Singapore has seen a rise in investors. There’s been also talk that that China will open its borders in 2023 and we expect to see another influx of capital and individuals into Singapore. Probably prompting at least a hold of prices at least and/or even see a spike in certain Real Asset class.
The cost of private homes and HDB resale flats is expected to increase by a slower rate of around 7 percent in 2023, a decrease from the 11 percent from the year before. The gap between potential buyers and sellers in terms of price may lead to fewer deals being closed or taking longer to finalize.
6. Cautious Developers in Land bids
As we face higher macro economic situations of higher interest rates, war and inflation and increase GST in 2023, we’ve seen a big pull back of developer’s interest in bigger parcels of land bids by developers.
The risks for developers are much higher because if they fail to sell all the units within 5 years, they would be slapped with 35% Additional Buyer’s Stamps Duty (ABSD)
2 large 99 yr leasehold plots were recently up for auction. Dunman Road (1040 units) and Pine Grove (520 units) fetched just 2 bids and 5 bids respectively. Much less than what was expected by more analyst.
SingHaiyi Group and Haiyi Holdings’ top bid of S$1.28 billion or S$1,350.50 (psf ppr) for the Dunman plot, which is near Dakota MRT station and beside the Geylang River. Its break even cost is about $2,120. With a probable launch price of $2,800 for this 99 yr lease property
Final Note
Despite the precarious macroeconomic situation in the world today, investors have shown their preference for real assets. As its a good hedge against inflation, rising interest rates and over money supply.
There are no quick solutions to global economic issues, but Singapore’s real estate sector has shown tremendous resilience to other countries. And we believe here in Singapore, it will continue to be an attractive option for both local and international investors. In short, we are still bullish about 2023!
